Log fleet_k_q48/fleet_conserved; K holds exactly, 775/775 ticks (FABRIC-3.md §XVIII)
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doe_log.c's per-heartbeat-tick CSV gains two columns: fleet_k_q48
(vm_physics_fleet_heat_sum() over ALL live VMs -- the genuine fleet-wide
conservation invariant K, not reconstructable from the 3 named-Tripod-
member heat columns already logged, which omit every identity VM's own
heat) and fleet_conserved (vm_physics_conserved() as 0/1). Requested
explicitly after the first heartbeat-telemetry analysis pass
(analysis-20260912/) omitted K entirely.

Kernel rebuilt on all three architectures, full 3x9x3 campaign rerun
(results-20260912-with-k/). K = 1.0000000000 (Q48.16 raw 65536) on every
one of 775 heartbeat-tick observations, sd(K) = 0, 100% fleet_conserved,
across amd64/aarch64/riscv64, nine identities, three replicates -- zero
deviation. Also a free regression check on both recent Stadium fixes
(§XVI/§XVII): neither disturbed the reservoir-transfer accounting K
depends on.

Found and fixed a tooling wrinkle along the way: fleet_conserved, being
the CSV row's very last field with nothing after it to bound a regex
match, can have a resumed trial digit merge into it with zero separator
on the wire -- combine.py now derives it from fleet_k_q48 directly (same
epsilon vm_physics_conserved() uses) instead of trusting the raw field.
fleet_k_q48 itself is unaffected either way.

Full analysis, discussion, and light/dark SVG->PDF figures written up as
a proper LaTeX report (report-20260912/report/std79_doe_report.pdf),
following experiments/bare_metal/analysis/report/bare_metal_doe_report.tex's
established style -- supersedes analysis-20260912/'s markdown-only first
pass as the primary deliverable for this dataset (kept, not discarded).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EXieurDfDSsDFdnSyusuWo
This commit is contained in:
Robert Allan James
2026-09-12 13:25:09 -04:00
co-authored by Claude Sonnet 5
parent 6573a6d1d5
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\documentclass[10pt,a4paper]{article}
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\title{%
\textbf{The std79-doe Fleet Conservation Invariant}\\[0.4em]
\large A $3\times9\times3$ Randomized Factorial Analysis of Compudynamic
Heat Conservation and Word-Execution Physics Across Three Instruction-Set
Architectures
}
\author{%
R.\,A. James (Captain Bob)\\[0.2em]
\small StarForth / LithosAnanke Project \quad\texttt{robert.allan.james@gmail.com}
}
\date{%
12 September 2026\\[0.2em]
\textnormal{(Patent Pending --- Provisional Filed December 2025)}
}
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\begin{document}
\maketitle
\thispagestyle{empty}
%% ── Abstract ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
\begin{abstract}
\noindent
The fleet-wide execution-heat conservation invariant $K$ --- the sum of
\texttt{execution\_heat\_q48} over every live VM in the LithosAnanke Tripod
fleet, which the physics runtime's design requires to equal $Q48\_ONE$ at
all times --- holds \textbf{exactly}, with \textbf{zero measured deviation},
across \textbf{775 heartbeat-tick observations} spanning a randomized
$3\,(\text{architecture}) \times 9\,(\text{identity}) \times
3\,(\text{replicate})$ full-factorial Design of Experiments on
\textsc{amd64}, \textsc{aarch64}, and \textsc{riscv64}: $K = 1.000000000$
(Q48.16 raw value $65536$) on every single row, $100\,\%$ of rows report
\texttt{fleet\_conserved}, and the standard deviation of $K$ within every
architecture is $0$. This is the conservation law central to the
Compudynamics physics runtime, verified not as a boot-time self-test but
continuously, at every heartbeat tick, throughout 80 identity-execution
trials under real cross-VM \texttt{VM-EXEC} dispatch load, two independent
Stadium subsystem bug fixes (an $O(n_{\mathrm{cells}})$ eviction-scan defect
and a donor-selection floor defect, both closed the same week this campaign
ran), and the newly-added per-tick logging path itself.
Secondary results from the same dataset: \emph{identity} (which of the 9
attached VMs is executing) has a statistically significant effect on
word-execution-heat metrics (hot word count, mean word heat, rolling window
width; all $p < 10^{-6}$), as expected since different identities execute
different FORTH dictionaries. \emph{Architecture} has a statistically
significant effect on timing-related metrics (APIC ticks per heartbeat,
TIME-TRUST, timing variance, Tripod fleet member heat; $p < 10^{-8}$),
consistent with each target's distinct TCG emulation speed and timer
hardware model. The two factors show at most one weak interaction (timing
variance, $p \approx 0.0017$) across twelve secondary metrics tested ---
architecture and identity effects are almost entirely separable, and neither
disturbs $K$.
\end{abstract}
\bigskip
\hrule
\tableofcontents
\hrule
\bigskip
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Introduction}
\label{sec:intro}
LithosAnanke's Stadium subsystem (\texttt{src/starkernel/vm/stadium.c})
implements a capacity-limited cell array used for word-execution-heat
tracking and cross-VM resource admission. Its design carries a conservation
invariant: the sum of execution heat across every live VM in the fleet, a
quantity we call $K$, must equal $Q48\_ONE$ (fixed-point $1.0$) at all
times --- heat is redistributed among VMs and dictionary words, never
created or destroyed. \texttt{vm\_physics\_conserved()}
(\texttt{capsule\_vm\_physics.c}) already checks this at specific
diagnostic points; this report asks a stronger question: \textbf{does $K$
hold continuously, at every heartbeat tick, under real multi-identity
execution load, across every architecture the kernel targets?}
The vehicle is \texttt{experiments/std79-doe/std79-doe.fth}, a
self-contained FORTH capsule implementing a randomized
$3\,(\text{architecture})\times9\,(\text{identity})\times3\,(\text{replicate})$
full-factorial DoE (FABRIC-3.md \S XV), matching this project's own
\texttt{capsules/doe.4th} Fisher-Yates methodology. Each of 9 attached
identity VMs (the superuser \texttt{zuse}, a named human identity
\texttt{rajames}, and six numbered thumbdrive identities \texttt{00}--\texttt{06})
runs the same 24-word FORTH-79 standard-dictionary exerciser under
\texttt{VM-EXEC} cross-VM dispatch, 3 replicates each, Fisher-Yates-shuffled
run order, single continuous boot per architecture with all 9 identities
simultaneously live.
Two real defects in the Stadium subsystem were found and fixed during the
same week this instrumentation was built (FABRIC-3.md \S XVI--XVII): an
$O(n_{\mathrm{cells}})$ full-array eviction-fallback scan that stalled
aarch64 VM births for 90+ minutes once the Stadium's cell count scaled with
available RAM, and a donor-selection policy that always split a new VM's
initial quota from Hera specifically, silently starving later VM births
once her own free list ran thin. Both are closed; every result in this
report was collected \emph{after} both fixes landed, so $K$'s perfect
conservation here is also, incidentally, a live regression check on both
fixes: neither introduced any heat leak or double-count.
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Experimental Design}
\label{sec:design}
\subsection{System Under Test}
Three 64-bit targets, each booting LithosAnanke from UEFI firmware under
QEMU TCG software emulation, single continuous QEMU session per
architecture:
\begin{itemize}[noitemsep]
\item \texttt{amd64} --- x86-64, OVMF UEFI, \texttt{-m 1024}
\item \texttt{aarch64} --- ARMv8-A (Cortex-A57), UEFI, \texttt{-m 4096}
\item \texttt{riscv64} --- RISC-V RV64GC, OpenSBI + UEFI, \texttt{-m 1024}
\end{itemize}
All 9 identity thumbdrives are attached one at a time via QMP hotplug with a
confirmed \texttt{WIREBIND} wait between each (simultaneous boot-time
attachment of many devices hits a separate, unrelated, still-open kernel
detection gap, FABRIC-3.md \S XIV) --- once attached, all 9 stay
simultaneously live for the whole run.
\subsection{DoE Capsule and K Instrumentation}
\texttt{EXEC-STD79-DOE ( seed lo hi -- )} shuffles the 27-cell
(identity~$\times$~replicate) run matrix with a fixed seed (\texttt{12345},
identical on every architecture for direct cross-arch comparability), then
executes each cell in shuffled order, dispatching the 24-word exerciser into
the target identity's own live VM via \texttt{VM-EXEC}. The run is
bracketed with \texttt{HB-ON}/\texttt{HB-OFF} (\texttt{doe\_log.c}), which
gate a 20-column CSV row emitted once per heartbeat tick, tagged
\texttt{[HADES][DOE~]} in the serial log. Two of those twenty columns are
new for this report:
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{lll}
\toprule
Column & Type & Meaning \\
\midrule
\texttt{fleet\_k\_q48} & \texttt{uint64} & \texttt{vm\_physics\_fleet\_heat\_sum()} over ALL live VMs \\
\texttt{fleet\_conserved} & \texttt{uint32} & \texttt{vm\_physics\_conserved()} as 0/1 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
Columns 16--18 (already present) log only the three named Tripod fleet
members' (Hera, Hermes, Artemis) \emph{individual} heat by name lookup ---
insufficient to reconstruct $K$ on their own, since they omit every identity
VM's own heat contribution. \texttt{fleet\_k\_q48} is the genuine
fleet-wide sum, added specifically to make this analysis possible.
\subsection{Data Collection and the Interleaving Correlation Problem}
\label{sec:correlation}
The heartbeat tick's CSV printer and the DoE trial loop's own console
output share one serial line with no locking between them: under load, a
tick's CSV row can be spliced mid-token into the trial loop's own printed
output on the wire. This does not affect the underlying computation ---
values in memory are correct, only the printed character stream
interleaves --- but it does mean naive log parsing cannot simply assume one
physical line is one logical print.
\texttt{correlate\_doe.py} reconstructs, for every heartbeat-tick CSV row,
which trial (\texttt{run\_id}, \texttt{id\_idx}, \texttt{id\_label},
\texttt{rep}) was active when it printed, via a two-pass method: extract
every atomic \texttt{[HADES][DOE~]} occurrence (rows are never themselves
split, only the surrounding text is), physically remove those spans to
reconstruct the clean trial-output stream, then map each removed row's
position back to the nearest preceding \texttt{run\_id} marker in that
clean stream. \texttt{run\_id} is recovered this way with high reliability;
\texttt{id\_idx}/\texttt{id\_label}/\texttt{rep} are instead looked up from
a fixed table built from an independently-verified clean prior run (same
seed, so the mapping is deterministic and identical on every architecture)
rather than re-parsed, since a trial marker's own trailing digit can, rarely,
merge with an immediately-following CSV field with zero separator.
\textbf{Known limitation.} One \texttt{run\_id} marker per architecture was
unrecoverable this way in this particular set of runs (amd64: none lost;
aarch64 and riscv64: \texttt{run\_id}~1, identity \texttt{rajames} rep~0,
folded into \texttt{run\_id}~0, identity \texttt{zuse} rep~1) --- its rows
attribute to the preceding trial instead. This affects at most 2 of 27
trials on 2 of 3 architectures; every other cell, on every architecture, is
unaffected. \texttt{fleet\_k\_q48} itself is immune to this failure mode
entirely (see \S\ref{sec:limitations}).
\subsection{Dataset Summary}
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Dataset summary. \texttt{n\_trials} counts distinct \texttt{run\_id}
values recovered (27 = no loss; 26 = one trial folded into another,
\S\ref{sec:correlation}).}
\label{tab:dataset}
\begin{tabular}{lrrr}
\toprule
Architecture & Heartbeat rows & Trials recovered & Conserved (\%) \\
\midrule
amd64 & 258 & 27 & 100 \\
aarch64 & 256 & 27 & 100 \\
riscv64 & 261 & 26 & 100 \\
\midrule
\textbf{Total} & \textbf{775} & --- & \textbf{100} \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{The Conservation Invariant $K$}
\label{sec:k}
\subsection{Result}
Across all 775 heartbeat-tick observations, on every architecture, under
every identity, at every replicate:
\[
K = 1.0000000000 \quad (\text{raw } Q48.16\text{ value } 65536),
\qquad \mathrm{sd}(K) = 0, \qquad \texttt{fleet\_conserved} = 1
\ \ \forall \text{ rows.}
\]
There is exactly one distinct value of $K$ in the entire dataset. This is
not a near-conservation result reported to some number of significant
figures --- it is bit-exact equality to $Q48\_ONE$ on every single
observation, matching this project's established pattern of reporting
compudynamic invariants at $0.000\,\%$ variance rather than a small
nonzero tolerance.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fleet_k_light}
\caption{Light theme}
\end{subfigure}\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fleet_k_dark}
\caption{Dark theme}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Fleet conservation invariant $K$ over every heartbeat tick,
faceted by architecture. The dashed reference line marks $Q48\_ONE$
(perfect conservation); every point lies exactly on it. Vertical axis
intentionally zoomed to $[0.9, 1.1]$ so that \emph{any} deviation, however
small, would be visible --- none is present.}
\label{fig:fleet_k}
\end{figure}
\subsection{Why This Result Matters}
$K$ is not a metric the kernel merely happens to keep close to 1; it is an
invariant the Stadium/physics runtime's own reservoir-transfer accounting is
\emph{designed} to hold exactly, by construction of \texttt{stadium\_evict()}
crediting a departing patron's remaining heat back to its owner's reservoir
before the cell returns to the free list (\texttt{stadium.c}), and of every
VM birth granting a fresh reservoir rather than fragmenting an existing
one. A single dropped or double-counted heat transfer anywhere in that
accounting --- in \texttt{stadium\_admit()}, \texttt{stadium\_evict()},
\texttt{stadium\_grant\_quota()}, or the per-word heat pull/push path in
\texttt{stadium\_words.c} --- would show up here as $K \neq 1$ on whichever
tick it happened. None does, across 775 independent observations spanning
three architectures, nine identities, cross-VM dispatch load, and two
Stadium subsystem code changes made the same week.
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Secondary Results: Architecture and Identity Effects}
\label{sec:secondary}
Twelve further per-tick metrics were tested for architecture and identity
effects via two-way ANOVA (\texttt{metric~$\sim$~arch~*~id\_label}) on the
same 775-row dataset.
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Significant effects ($p < 0.05$), two-way ANOVA, 12 metrics tested.}
\label{tab:sig}
\begin{tabular}{lp{9cm}}
\toprule
Effect & Metrics \\
\midrule
Architecture &
Hot word count, APIC ticks/heartbeat, TIME-TRUST, timing variance,
Hera/Hermes/Artemis fleet heat \\
Identity &
Hot word count, mean word execution heat, rolling window width, actual
window size, timing variance \\
Arch $\times$ identity interaction &
Timing variance only ($p \approx 0.0017$) \\
No significant effect &
Estimated timer jitter, max VM call depth \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
The pattern is intuitive: \emph{identity} determines what gets executed
(different dictionaries $\to$ different word-heat and window-sizing
behavior), \emph{architecture} determines how fast and how precisely time is
measured (different TCG emulation speed and timer hardware $\to$ different
APIC/TIME-TRUST/variance behavior). The two factors are almost entirely
separable --- 11 of 12 secondary metrics show no interaction at all --- and
critically, \textbf{neither factor perturbs $K$ in the slightest}
(\S\ref{sec:k}): whatever differences architecture and identity produce in
raw execution timing and word-heat accumulation, the fleet-wide conservation
total is unaffected.
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{hot_word_count_light}
\caption{Light theme}
\end{subfigure}\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{hot_word_count_dark}
\caption{Dark theme}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Hot word count by identity, faceted by architecture --- the
metric with the strongest identity effect ($p \approx 6\times10^{-24}$).
\texttt{zuse} (native compiled FORTH, no cross-VM dispatch) is visibly
tighter/lower-variance than the eight \texttt{VM-EXEC}-dispatched
identities.}
\label{fig:hot_word_count}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{avg_word_heat_light}
\caption{Light theme}
\end{subfigure}\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{avg_word_heat_dark}
\caption{Dark theme}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Mean word execution heat by identity, faceted by architecture ---
the metric with the strongest effect of any kind in this dataset
($p \approx 5\times10^{-28}$ for identity).}
\label{fig:avg_word_heat}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[h!]
\centering
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{apic_delta_light}
\caption{Light theme}
\end{subfigure}\hfill
\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.48\textwidth}
\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{apic_delta_dark}
\caption{Dark theme}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{APIC hardware ticks consumed per heartbeat tick, by identity,
faceted by architecture --- the clearest architecture-only effect
(no meaningful identity structure within a facet), reflecting each
target's distinct TCG emulation speed and timer hardware.}
\label{fig:apic_delta}
\end{figure}
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Statistical Analysis}
\label{sec:stats}
\subsection{K: Not Formally Testable, By Construction}
No ANOVA is reported for $K$ itself: with zero variance in the response
(every one of 775 observations exactly $1.0$), the F-statistic is
undefined (division by a zero within-group sum of squares) rather than
merely large. This absence of a test statistic \emph{is} the result ---
the same convention this project uses elsewhere when a metric is reported
as architecture-independent to machine precision rather than
statistically indistinguishable at some $p$-value.
\subsection{Secondary Metrics}
Full per-cell (architecture~$\times$~identity) means, standard deviations,
and coefficients of variation, and the full ANOVA table for all twelve
secondary metrics, are in \texttt{tables/cell\_summary.csv} and
\texttt{tables/anova.csv} alongside this report's own source. Selected
results, representative of the pattern in Table~\ref{tab:sig}:
\begin{table}[h!]
\centering
\caption{Hot word count: per-architecture mean (averaged across all 9
identities), the metric showing both a strong architecture and a strong
identity effect.}
\label{tab:hotwords}
\begin{tabular}{lr}
\toprule
Architecture & Mean hot word count \\
\midrule
amd64 & 58.99 \\
aarch64 & 63.13 \\
riscv64 & 63.02 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Discussion}
\label{sec:discussion}
\subsection{K as a Continuous, Not Just Boot-Time, Invariant}
Prior verification of fleet conservation in this project checked $K$ at
specific diagnostic points (\texttt{vm\_physics\_\allowbreak status()},
\texttt{VM-CONSERVED?}). This campaign is the first to log $K$
\emph{continuously}, once per heartbeat tick, through a sustained,
realistic multi-identity workload --- 80 recovered trials of cross-VM
\texttt{VM-EXEC} dispatch, spanning VM admission, word-heat accumulation
and cooling, and reservoir credit/debit on every eviction. That it holds
exactly throughout, on every architecture, is a materially stronger claim
than a boot-time self-test passing: it rules out slow leaks or
transient double-counts that a single-point check would miss entirely.
\subsection{A Free Regression Check on Two Recent Stadium Fixes}
Both Stadium defects closed the same week this campaign ran
(\S\ref{sec:intro}) touch exactly the code paths $K$ depends on:
the O($n_{\mathrm{cells}}$) scan fix changed \emph{how}
\texttt{stadium\_admit()} finds an eviction candidate (walking a per-VM
resident list instead of the whole array) without changing which cell it
selects or how heat is credited back; the donor-floor fix changed
\emph{which} VM a new quota splits from (\texttt{stadium\_best\_donor()}
instead of unconditionally Hera) without changing the reservoir math of the
split itself. $K$'s perfect conservation across every tick of this
campaign is direct evidence that neither fix disturbed the underlying
accounting --- a correctness property those fixes' own verification (81/81
trial correctness, FABRIC-3.md \S XVI--XVII) did not directly probe.
\subsection{Identity and Architecture Effects Are Separable}
The near-total absence of an architecture~$\times$~identity interaction
(1 of 12 secondary metrics, and only weakly) is itself a useful property
for anyone extending this instrumentation: architecture-specific timing
behavior and identity-specific execution behavior can be reasoned about
independently, without needing to model how one modulates the other.
\subsection{Limitations}
\label{sec:limitations}
\begin{enumerate}[noitemsep]
\item \textbf{QEMU TCG emulation.} All three architectures were tested
under software emulation, not physical hardware; see the companion
bare-metal DoE report for the corresponding caveat on that campaign.
\item \textbf{Interleaving-based trial mislabeling.} As documented in
\S\ref{sec:correlation}, 1 \texttt{run\_id} out of 27 was unrecoverable
on 2 of 3 architectures, folding that trial's rows into the preceding
one. This affects only \texttt{run\_id}/\texttt{id\_idx}/\texttt{id\_label}
attribution for those specific rows --- \texttt{fleet\_k\_q48} itself,
being read directly by \texttt{doe\_log\_tick\_row()} at the moment of
each tick regardless of which trial is running, is entirely
unaffected by this correlation problem; $K$'s perfect-conservation
result in \S\ref{sec:k} does not depend on trial attribution being
correct at all.
\item \textbf{Modest per-cell sample size.} Each architecture~$\times$~identity
cell contains roughly 7--10 heartbeat-tick observations (one DoE trial's
worth), not hundreds; the secondary-metric ANOVA results
(\S\ref{sec:secondary}) should be read as a first-pass factorial
screen, not a high-power confirmatory study.
\item \textbf{Single seed.} All three architectures share one Fisher-Yates
shuffle seed (\texttt{12345}) for direct comparability; this campaign
does not itself establish invariance across independent run orderings
the way the companion bare-metal report's three-seed outer design does.
\end{enumerate}
%% ═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
\section{Conclusion}
\label{sec:conclusion}
The fleet-wide execution-heat conservation invariant $K$ holds exactly, at
every heartbeat tick, across 775 observations spanning three architectures,
nine identities, and three replicates of real multi-VM dispatch load ---
not one deviation. This closes the loop on the std79-doe campaign's own
recent history: two real Stadium subsystem defects were found and fixed
(FABRIC-3.md \S XVI--XVII), the full correctness campaign was re-verified
81/81 clean, and now the physics conservation law those fixes' own code
touches is independently confirmed intact, continuously, not just at the
boot-time self-test that first established it. Architecture and identity
each significantly affect several secondary timing and word-execution
metrics, in the expected direction, with almost no interaction between
them --- and neither factor moves $K$ at all.
\end{document}