Files
LithosAnanake/experiments/std79-doe
Robert Allan JamesandClaude Sonnet 5 934be5a257
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Add 3x9 factorial analysis of std79-doe heartbeat/physics telemetry
Correlates every HB-ON/HB-OFF heartbeat-tick CSV row (results-20260912-
with-heartbeat-csv/*-doe-raw.log) back to which trial (run_id, id_idx,
id_label, rep) was active when it printed, despite the async tick
printer splicing rows mid-token -- including mid a DOE-RUN marker itself
-- into the trial loop's own console output on the shared serial line.

Pipeline (analysis-20260912/, see its own README.md):
- correlate_doe.py: two-pass reconstruction per architecture (remove
  atomic CSV-row spans to rebuild the clean trial-output stream, map
  each removed row's offset back to the nearest preceding run_id
  marker); identity/rep looked up from a known-clean prior run's
  run_id mapping rather than re-parsed, since one aarch64 marker
  (trial 12, rajames rep 1) lost its id_idx digit to a zero-separator
  collision with an adjacent CSV field and is unrecoverable from that
  log alone -- its rows fold into trial 11 instead, documented as a
  known limitation.
- combine.py: merges all three architectures into combined.csv (768
  rows), decoding Q48.16 fields to floats and jitter_bits' IEEE754 bit
  pattern to real jitter_ns.
- analysis.R: per-cell (architecture x identity) means/SD and two-way
  ANOVA for each of 12 telemetry metrics, one boxplot SVG per metric,
  written up as ANALYSIS.md.

Key findings: identity significantly affects word-heat/window-sizing
metrics (expected -- different identities execute different word
sets), architecture significantly affects timing metrics (APIC
ticks/tick, timing variance, fleet heat -- expected, different QEMU
targets), zero architecture x identity interaction on any metric.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EXieurDfDSsDFdnSyusuWo
2026-09-12 12:46:34 -04:00
..

std79 DoE — 3(architecture) × 9(identity) × 3(replicate) randomized full-factorial

The formal successor to experiments/std79-exerciser/'s ad hoc campaign (see FABRIC-3.md §XII), requested as a genuine randomized full-factorial design matching this project's own DoE methodology (capsules/doe.4th's Fisher-Yates run-matrix shuffle) rather than convenience batching — and written entirely in FORTH, not host-orchestrated shell scripting. See FABRIC-3.md §XV for the design writeup, §XVI for the real aarch64 Stadium/COOL scaling bug that was found, root-caused, and fixed (src/starkernel/vm/stadium.c), and §XVII for a second, related Stadium bug (stadium_grant_quota()'s donor-floor) found while writing up §XVI and fixed in a follow-up pass — the 3-boot batching workaround below is now historical only; a single boot with all 9 identities simultaneously live works cleanly on all three architectures as of both fixes.

std79-doe.fth is not a capsule loaded via EXEC — feed it as raw text to a running REPL (e.g. socat - UNIX-CONNECT:<serial_sock> < std79-doe.fth), same as the original exerciser, then invoke EXEC-STD79-DOE ( seed lo hi -- ) once loaded. lo/hi select which identity-index range (0-8) this boot's live VMs cover — pass 0 8 for a single boot with all 9 identities simultaneously attached (now confirmed working on all three architectures, see §XVI); a narrower range (e.g. 0 2, 3 5, 6 8) still works too, for running the DoE across multiple smaller boots if ever needed for an unrelated reason. Every boot must use the same seed so INIT-MATRIX/SHUFFLE-MATRIX reproduce the identical 27-slot master permutation; only the lo/hi filter differs, so run_id (always the slot's true position in the master shuffle, 0-26) stays directly comparable across boots.

results-20260911/ holds the raw captured serial output from the original campaign (pre-fix): amd64-doe-raw.log (all 27 trials, one boot, all 9 identities simultaneously live) and {aarch64,riscv64}-doe-batch{1,2,3}-raw.log (27 trials each, split across 3 boots of 3 identities, the then-necessary workaround). Result: 81/81 trials correct, 0 mismatches.

results-20260911-stadium-fix/ holds the rerun after §XVI's O(ncells)-scan fix — one boot per architecture, all 9 identities simultaneously live in every boot, same seed throughout. Result: 81/81 trials correct, 0 mismatches, byte-identical output to the original campaign — and the DOE-RUN header sequence (run_id/id_idx/id_label/rep assignment) is md5-identical across all three raw logs, confirming the master shuffle is genuinely architecture-independent. Total per-architecture wall-clock (boot + all 9 identity attaches + full 27-trial run, one continuous QEMU session): amd64 ~165s, aarch64 ~290s, riscv64 ~161s — aarch64's identity 04 attach alone, which stalled 90+ minutes before the fix, now completes in ~34s.

results-20260911-donor-floor-fix/ holds a further rerun after §XVII's donor-floor fix (same discipline: any Stadium defect repair reruns the whole DoE from the top). Result: 81/81 trials correct, 0 mismatches, DOE-RUN header sequence md5-identical to every prior run. Total wall-clock: amd64 ~161s, aarch64 ~280s (confirms no regression from §XVI's fix), riscv64 ~162s.

results-20260912-reconfirm/ holds a plain reconfirmation rerun the following day, no code changes since §XVII's fix (e51a8d2) — same seed, same single-boot-per-architecture, all 9 identities simultaneously live. Result: 81/81 trials correct, 0 mismatches, shuffle sequence still md5-identical to every prior run. Total wall-clock: amd64 ~151s, aarch64 ~276s, riscv64 ~165s.

results-20260912-with-heartbeat-csv/EXEC-STD79-DOE now brackets its trial loop with HB-ON/HB-OFF (doe_log.c's per-heartbeat-tick physics/timing CSV logger), so scripts/extract_doe.sh's automatically-generated CSV finally carries real data for this campaign — every prior run's extracted CSV was silently empty, since g_doe_log_enabled defaults off and nothing had ever turned it on. Each directory holds both the raw log (*-doe-raw.log) and its paired heartbeat CSV (*-heartbeat.csv, ~255-257 rows/architecture, 18 columns: tick_number, elapsed_ns, hot_word_count, avg_word_heat_q48, window_width, apic_ticks, hera/hermes/artemis heat_q48, etc. — see doe_log.c's own header comment for the full column list). Result: 27/27 trials correct on every architecture (verified via the campaign's most distinctive result markers — the two 18-19 digit M*/M/MOD values and the 2147483648 2/ result all show exactly 27 occurrences, zero faults) — not verified via exact substring/byte reconstruction, because turning HB-ON on for the whole run exposed a real, if purely cosmetic, effect: the heartbeat tick's async CSV printer and the trial loop's own console output share the same serial line with no locking between them, so CSV rows get spliced mid-token into the trial output on the wire (confirmed live: a "missing" DOE-RUN,0 line turned out to be DOE-RUN, and 0 ,6 ,04,2 on two separate physical log lines with a full CSV row printed in between). The underlying FORTH execution itself is unaffected — values are correct, nothing is corrupted in memory — only the printed character stream interleaves, so downstream tooling that wants an exact reconstruction of the trial-output stream from these three raw logs needs to account for that (strip [HADES][DOE ] ... fragments and rejoin) rather than assume one physical line is one logical print.

analysis-20260912/ builds exactly that reconstruction and turns it into a real 3×9 factorial analysis: correlate_doe.py labels every heartbeat-tick row with the trial that was active when it printed, combine.py merges all three architectures into combined.csv (768 rows, Q48.16 fields decoded to floats), and analysis.R computes per-cell (architecture × identity) means/SD and a two-way ANOVA for each of 12 telemetry metrics, rendering one boxplot SVG per metric. See analysis-20260912/README.md for the pipeline and analysis-20260912/ANALYSIS.md for the report itself — key findings: identity significantly affects word-heat/window-sizing metrics (expected — different identities execute different word sets), architecture significantly affects timing metrics (APIC ticks/tick, timing variance, fleet heat — expected, different QEMU targets), and zero architecture × identity interaction on any metric — the two factors' effects are clean and separable, not confounded.